nisqually glacier response to climate change

This allows us to assess the MB models responses at a regional scale to changes in individual predictors (Fig. 47 (2020). C.G. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Alpine glaciers, like this one near Mt. At this point, it is important to clarify the different ways of treating PDDs in the Lasso and the temperature-index MB models analysed in this study in order to justify analogies. Slider with three articles shown per slide. Uncertainties of existing projections of future glacier evolution are particularly large for the second half of the 21st century due to a large uncertainty on future climatic conditions. Salim, E., Ravanel, L., Deline, P. & Gauchon, C. A review of melting ice adaptation strategies in the glacier tourism context. A glacier is a large mass of snow and ice that has accumulated over many years and is present year-round. A similar trend is under way. CPDD, winter snowfall or summer snowfall) was modified for all glaciers and years. The model output data generated in this study have been deposited in netCDF and CSV format in a Zenodo repository under accession code Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International. Rackauckas, C. et al. Despite the existence of a wide variety of different approaches to simulate glacier dynamics, all glacier models in GlacierMIP rely on MB models with linear relationships between PDDs and melt, and precipitation and accumulation. Article For intermediate and pessimistic climate scenarios, no significant differences were found (Fig. Both the Lasso and the temperature-index MB model rely on linear relationships between PDDs, solid precipitation and MB. This rapid glacier retreat is already having an environmental impact on natural hazards20, mountain ecosystems21, and biodiversity6. We ran glacier evolution projections for both the deep learning and Lasso MB models, but we kept the glacier geometry constant, thus preserving the glacier centroid where the climate data is computed constant through time. 3). Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter what matters in science, free to your inbox daily. ADAMONT provides climate data at 300m altitudinal bands and different slope aspects, thus having a significantly higher spatial resolution than the 0.11 from EURO-CORDEX. Six, D. & Vincent, C. Sensitivity of mass balance and equilibrium-line altitude to climate change in the French Alps. A.R. As for the MB modelling approach, a detailed explanation on this method can be found in a previous dedicated paper on the methods31. Data 12, 19731983 (2020). All authors provided inputs to the paper and helped to write it. As the Earth heats up due to climate change, glaciers are melting. Spandre, P. et al. As we have previously shown, these models present a very similar behaviour to the linear statistical MB model from this study (Fig. The vertical blue and red lines indicate the distribution of extreme (top 5%) values for all 21st century projected climate scenarios, with the mean value in the center and 1 indicated by dashed lines. McKinley, Alaska, change in response to the local climate. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28033-0, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28033-0. Paul, F., Kb, A., Maisch, M., Kellenberger, T. & Haeberli, W. Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data: disintegration of alpine glaciers. Publishers note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Ten . 3). 0.5) than lower values typical from ice34. Loss of glaciers contributes to sea-level rise, creates environmental hazards and can alter aquatic habitats. The vast majority of glaciers in the French Alps are very small glaciers (<0.01km2), that are mainly remnants from the Little Ice Age, with a strong imbalance with the current climate15. Roe, G. H. Orographic precipitation. Tibshirani, R. Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso. Together with recent findings by another study41 highlighting the increased uncertainties in ice thickness distribution estimates of ice caps compared to mountain glaciers, our results raise further awareness on the important uncertainties in glacier projections for ice caps. Despite the existence of slightly different trends during the first half of the century, both the Lasso and the temperature-index model react similarly under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 during the second half of the century, compared to the deep learning model. 2a). glacier length12,14. Earth Syst. GLAMOS. Geophys. This means that these differences linked to MB nonlinearities observed in this experiment could be even greater for such ice caps. 4), as the linear model tends to over-estimate positive MB rates both from air temperature and snowfall (Fig. This method has the advantage of including glacier-specific dynamics in the model, encompassing a wide range of different glacier behaviours. The position of the front of the wave will be defined as the transverse line across the glacier where the flow of . Then, we ran multiple simulations for this same period by altering the initial ice thickness by 30% and the glacier geometry update parametrizations by 10%, according to the estimated uncertainties of each of the two methods31. CoRR abs/1505.00853 (2015). Lett. These results are in agreement with the main known drivers of glacier mass change in the French Alps28. Annual glacier-wide mass balance (MB) is estimated to remain stable at around 1.2m.w.e. Other articles where Nisqually Glacier is discussed: Mount Rainier: from the broad summit, including Nisqually Glacier, whose retreat and advance over the last 150 years has helped scientists determine patterns in the Earth's climate. The maximum advance of Nisqually Glacier in the last thousand years was located, and retreat from this point is believed to have started about 1840. In this study, we investigate the future evolution of glaciers in the French Alps and their nonlinear response to multiple climate scenarios. This behaviour is not observed with the nonlinear model, hinting at a positive bias of linear MB models under RCP 2.6. S8 and Fig. 5). In summary, the linear approximations used by the Lasso manage to correctly fit the main cluster of average values but perform poorly for extreme values31. Here, we perform the first-ever glacier evolution projections based on deep learning by modelling the 21st century glacier evolution in the French Alps. The main uncertainties in future glacier estimates stem from future climate projections and levels of greenhouse gas emissions (differences between RCPs, GCMs, and RCMs), whose relative importance progressively increases throughout the 21st century. Through synthetic experiments, we showed that the associated uncertainties are likely to be even more pronounced for ice caps, which host the largest reserves of ice outside the two main ice sheets32. H.Z. The rest of the story appears to lie primarily in the unique dynamic response of the region's glaciers to climate change. Braithwaite, R. J. The 29 RCP-GCM-RCM combinations available, hereafter named climate members, are representative of future climate trajectories with different concentration levels of greenhouse gases (TableS1). 51, 573587 (2005). If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate. Differences in projected glacier changes become more pronounced from the second half of the century, when about half of the initial 2015 ice volume has already been lost independent of the considered scenario. Earths Future https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470 (2020). ICCV (2015) https://doi.org/10.1109/iccv.2015.123. Therefore, an alternative nonlinear parameterization for the reduction in MB sensitivity under increasing air temperatures would be useful. For such cases, we assumed that ice dynamics no longer play an important role, and the mass changes were applied equally throughout the glacier. The Cryosphere 12, 13671386 (2018). performed simulations with another glacier model, provided results for comparison, and contributed to the glaciological analyses. If material is not included in the articles Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. J. Hydrol. (a) Topographical predictors were computed based on the glaciers annually updated digital elevation model (DEM). Geophys. Our results point out that this lack of topographical feedback leads to an increased frequency of extreme negative MB rates and to more pronounced differences between the nonlinear and linear MB models (Figs. In order to investigate the effects of MB nonlinearities on ice caps, we performed the same type of comparison between simulations, but the glacier geometry update module described in the Glacier geometry evolution section was deactivated. 51, 313323 (2005). Internet Explorer). Since these two glaciers are expected to be some of the few large glaciers that will survive the 21st century climate, an accurate representation of their initial ice thickness has an important effect on the estimates of remaining ice. Several differences are present between ALPGM, the model used in this study, and GloGEMflow (TableS2), which hinder a direct meaningful comparison between both. regularized multilinear regression. Fundam. ArXiv200104385 Cs Math Q-Bio Stat (2020). Article The same was done with winter snowfall anomalies, ranging between 1500mm and +1500mm in steps of 100mm, and summer snowfall anomalies, ranging between 1000mm and +1000mm in steps of 100mm. Relatively minor climate changes during the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1200-1850) impart significant glacial responses. This parametrization reproduces in an empirical manner the changes in glacier geometry due to the combined effects of ice dynamics and MB. Conversely, the linear MB model appears to be over-sensitive to extreme positive and negative snowfall anomalies. This approach is known as a cross-validation ensemble49. Correspondence to Strong Alpine glacier melt in the 1940s due to enhanced solar radiation. 4e). This suggests that linear MB models are adequate tools for simulating MB of mountain glaciers with important topographical adjustment, with the only exception being the most optimistic climate scenarios and glaciers with long response times. Water resources provided by glaciers sustain around 10% of the worlds population living near mountains and the contiguous plains4, depending on them for agriculture, hydropower generation5, industry or domestic use. The Nisqually Glacier is one of the larger glaciers on the southwestern face of Mount Rainier in the U.S. state of Washington.The glacier is one of the most easily viewed on the mountain, and is accessible from the Paradise visitor facilities in Mount Rainier National Park.The glacier has had periods of advance and retreat since 1850 when it was much more extensive. 4). Predicting future glacier evolution is of paramount importance in order to correctly anticipate and mitigate the resulting environmental and social impacts. b, c, d and f, g, h annual glacier-wide MB probability distribution functions for all n scenarios in each RCP. Glob. S5cf), except for the largest glaciers (e.g. Nisqually Glacier in Mount Rainier National Park, Wash., covers 2.5 square miles (6.5 square kilometers) (1961) and extends from an altitude of about 14,300 feet (4,400 meters) near the top of Mount Rainier down to 4,700 feet (1,400 meters), in a horizontal distance of 4.1 miles (6.6 kilometers). 4e). Between 1857 and 1979, Nisqually Glacier receded a total of 1,945 meters and advanced a total of 294 meters. Nature Communications (Nat Commun) Glacier topography is a crucial driver of future glacier projections and is expected to play an important role in determining the magnitude that nonlinearities will have on the mass balance. "It has been pretty much doing this nonstop since the mid-1800s." The Nisqually Glacier is losing nearly a quarter of a mile in length a year, Kennard added. Then in 1884, Allen Mason photographed the glacier for the first time . Google Scholar. Nonetheless, a better understanding of the underlying processes guiding these nonlinear behaviours at large geographical scales is needed. These synthetic experiments suggest that, for equal climatic conditions, flatter glaciers and ice caps will experience substantially more negative MB rates than steeper mountain glaciers. Years in white in c-e indicate the disappearance of all glaciers in a given massif. Researchers analyzed almost 2 million satellite images of the glaciers and found that 94 . Mer de Glace, 29km2 in 2015), which did show important differences under RCP 8.5 (up to 75%), due to their longer response time. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. This annual geometry adjustment accounts for the effects of glacier retreat on the climate signal received by glaciers. 3c), which is directly linked to summer air temperatures and has a strong influence on surface albedo. The original ice thickness estimates of the methods used by both models are different10,32, and for ALPGM we performed some additional modifications to the two largest glaciers in the French Alps (see Glacier geometry evolution for details). We perform, to the best of our knowledge, the first-ever deep learning (i.e. Therefore, solid precipitation is projected to remain almost constant at the evolving glaciers mean altitude independently from the future climate scenarios, while air temperature is projected to drive future glacier-wide mass changes (Fig. Grenoble Alpes, Universit de Toulouse, Mto-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre dtudes de la Neige, Grenoble, France, Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands, Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Universit Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium, Univ. When it was built in the early 1900s, the road into Mount Rainier National Park from the west passed near the foot of the Nisqually Glacier, one of the mountain's longest . Such ice caps cannot retreat to higher elevations in a warming climate, which inhibits this positive impact on MB40 (Fig. MB rates only begin to approach equilibrium towards the end of the century under RCP 2.6, for which glaciers could potentially stabilize with the climate in the first decades of the 22nd century depending on their response time (Fig. Despite these differences, the average altitude difference of the glaciers between both models is never greater than 50m (Fig. The machine learning models used in this study are useful to highlight and quantify how nonlinearities in MB affect climate-glacier interactions, but are limited in terms of process understanding. Earth Sci. Thank you for visiting nature.com. Nisqually Glacier is the lengthiest of any made in North America. The source code of the glacier model can be freely accessed in the following repository: https://github.com/JordiBolibar/ALPGM. This synthetic experiment is an approximation of what might occur in other glacierized regions with ice caps. Article 5). Overall, this results in linear MB models overestimating both extreme positive (Fig. Alternatively, the Lasso MB model displayed an RMSE of 0.85m.w.e. Because of easy access and prominent location the glacier has been studied since the mid 1850's. In 1857, Lt. August Kautz crossed Nisqually Glacier during an attempt to climb the summit. We acknowledge the more than 50 years of glaciological monitoring performed by the GLACIOCLIM French National Observatory (https://glacioclim.osug.fr), which provided essential observations for our modelling study. Bolibar, J. ALPGM (ALpine Parameterized Glacier Model) v1.1. Through his research in that area, he's seen firsthand the impact of climate change and has been studying the long-term effects of a warming planet. With this study, we provide new predictions of glacier evolution in a highly populated mountain region, while investigating the role of nonlinearities in the response of glaciers to multiple future climate forcings. An accurate prediction of future glacier evolution will be crucial to successfully adapt socioeconomic models and preserve biodiversity. Farinotti, D. et al. 12, 168173 (2019). This ensures that the model is capable of reproducing MB rates for unseen glaciers and years. Photographs taken by Simo Rsnen (Bossons glacier, European Alps, CC BY-SA 3.0) and Doug Hardy (Quelccaya ice cap, Andes, CC BY-SA 4.0). creates a Nisqually Glacier response similar to those seen from its historical waves, suggesting that there are other factors contributing to kinematic wave formation, and 4) the Nisqually . On top of that, they happen to be among the glacierized regions with the largest projected uncertainties8. Particularly in Asia, water demand exceeds supply due to rapid population growth, with glacier . 6 (2018). The record, which was started in 1931, shows the glacier's dramatic responses to about half a century of small but significant climatic variations. the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Indeed, the projected 21st century warming will lead to increasing incoming longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes, with no marked future trends in the evolution of shortwave radiation37. The first main difference is related to the climate data used to force the models. 10, 42574283 (2017). The processing chain for extracting glacier outlines from images is composed of four steps: (1) calculation of band ratio, (2) selection of threshold value, (3) creation of binary image and (4) manual digitization. Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning, Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, Two decades of glacier mass loss along the Andes, Centennial response of Greenlands three largest outlet glaciers, Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century, High Mountain Asian glacier response to climate revealed by multi-temporal satellite observations since the 1960s, Rapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the early 21st century, Ice velocity and thickness of the worlds glaciers, Constraining glacier elevation and mass changes in South America, https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2020/EGU2020-20908.html, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20908, https://doi.org/10.18750/MASSBALANCE.2019.R2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00009-8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00885-z, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, Unabated wastage of the Muz Taw Glacier in the Sawir Mountains during 19592021. Additionally, the specific responses of the deep learning and Lasso MB models to air temperature and snowfall were extracted by performing a model sensitivity analysis. Res. Therefore, linear MB models present more limitations for projections of ice caps, showing a tendency to negative MB biases. The smallest best performing architecture was used, in order to find a good balance between predictive power, speed, and extrapolation outside the training data. Each one of these models was created by training a deep learning model with the full dataset except all data from a random glacier and year, and evaluating the performance on these hidden values. The dataset of initial glacier ice thickness, available for the year 2003, determines the starting point of our simulations. By Carol Rasmussen,NASA's Earth Science News Team. This work was funded by the Labex OSUG@2020 (Investissements davenir, ANR10 LABX56) and the Auvergne-Rhne-Alpes region through the BERGER project. 1 and S1). Analyses were made of the annual photographs . S1a). Using this function, the glacier-specific ice thickness and the DEM are updated every year, adjusting the 3D geometry of each glacier. 1d, g). 2015 IEEE Int. 48, 24872512 (2009). GloGEMflow has been previously applied in a study over the whole European Alps, and its temperature-index model was mainly calibrated with MB data from the Swiss Alps. A NASA-led, international study finds Asia's high mountain glaciers are flowing more slowly in response to widespread ice loss, affecting freshwater availability downstream in India, Pakistan and China. Since the neural network used here virtually behaves like a black box, an alternative way is needed to understand the models behaviour. Zekollari, H., Huss, M. & Farinotti, D. On the Imbalance and Response Time of Glaciers in the European Alps. Sci. These trends explored with energy balance models from the literature correspond to the behaviour captured by our deep learning MB model, with a clearly less sensitive response of glacier-wide MB to extreme climate forcings, particularly in summer (Fig. We argue that such models can be suitable for steep mountain glaciers. J. Glaciol. Simulations for projections in this study were made by generating an ensemble of 60 cross-validated models based on LSYGO. New research suggests that climate change-induced melting of the Nisqually Glacier near Seattle, Wash., and other high-elevation glaciers will offset seasonal declines in streamflow until. 12, 1959 (2020). Conversely, for RCP 8.5, annual glacier-wide MB are estimated to become increasingly negative by the second half of the century, with average MB almost twice as negative as todays average values (Fig. B Methodol. Our results serve as a strong reminder that the outcomes of existing large-scale glacier simulations should be interpreted with care, and that newly available techniques (such as the nonlinear deep learning approach presented here) and observations (e.g.

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